Can Influence Predict Box Office Success? {infographic}

By Nyerr Parham

It’s awards season and we’re definitely not immune to the entertainment fever that’s sweeping over the nation as the movie industry prepares for the crème de la crème of awards shows – The Academy Awards. Given the buzz from tinsel town during this time of year, we decided to evaluate two of the most nominated films to see which movie was more influential leading up to launch and to see if in fact this pre-launch influence correlated with box office success. The movies we examined were Les Misérables and Django Unchained from December 19 to January 12. Please see the graphic and our findings below.

You Can’t Always Trust the Hype
We started by looking at Google search volume which can be an indicator of the effectiveness of pre-launch marketing efforts. It’s natural that as more people hear about a new launch through press or movie trailers and the hype builds, they would Google the movie to learn more. We found that the early indicator in search results revealed a false positive – meaning that while Les Misérables had the most searches before launch, this initial lead in buzz did not correlate to higher cumulative box office revenue over time. In addition while the search volume leader fluctuated with Django Unchained edging out Les Mis a few weeks after launch, Django had the highest net influence score before, during and after launch, with significant increases in influence over time. More on this below.

The Relationship between Influence and Success
As mentioned, despite the success Les Misérables over Django Unchained during the first weekend of release, the movie was unable to sustain its lead over time. Looking at the data, we expected to see a more family-oriented movie like Les Mis succeed over the holiday period while families were together and heading to the movies in droves. What we found interesting is the comparison of Django’s net influence score with that of Les Mis and how they relate to box office success over time. It got us questioning a few things: 1) Is there a correlation between influence and success, especially as it relates to long-tail sales, and 2) What are the marketing strategy implications of the relationship?

The Relationship between Influence and Diversity of Influencers
It’s interesting to see the different types of influencers who are driving conversation around both movies. Les Misérables, which has a lower net influence score, has associated talent (actors, director) with lower average influence scores than the talent behind Django Unchained. In addition, Django had a diverse set of influencers to drive conversation both positively and negatively. Spike Lee was a prominent voice of critique of the language used in Django and its portrayal of slavery. His remarks received a lot of attention. However it’s the cachet of the influencers, regardless of sentiment around the movie that helped boost Django’s net influence score.

We realize that Les Misérables and Django Unchained are two very different movies, attracting different demographics, but the findings raise interesting points about the impact of influence on long-term box office success. Reaching the right influencers does amplify the reach and buzz of an upcoming release. As seen here, these influencers can be employees (movie talent) or influencers in related industries with platforms that reach a designated target demographic. Irrespective of the type of product launch, influence marketing provides a way to raise awareness early which can more effectively set a product up for long-term success.

Image Credit: Daniel Borman